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☆ The American Dream is under siege
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-02 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +15 min

Parents of young children are making difficult choices to afford child care — or they’re opting to evade it by dropping out of the workforce altogether. Even as the inflation rate has cooled across the US economy, child care remains a sore spot for many families. The weekly price of day care for a toddler surged 9% in 2023, according to Care.com, a marketplace for child care. Of course, Allison is hardly alone in feeling like the American Dream has been more difficult — and expensive — to attain than imagined. “The American dream is being taken away from the younger generation by the housing affordability challenges,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.

Persons: Hana Husković, Price, Hana, Michelle, they'll, ” Hana, “, It’s, they’ll, ’ Allison Powell, Liam Kelly, ” Allison, Allison Powell, Corinne ., ”, Allison, I’ll, homebuyers, Lotfi Karoui, Goldman Sachs, Lawrence Yun, Yun, Priscilla Almodovar, Fannie Mae, ” Almodovar, that’s, Almodovar, they’d, Homebuilding, Mark Zandi, Biden, ” Lael Brainard, Brainard, ” Brainard, ‘, Rachael Gambino, Garrett Mazzeo, Rachael, Deborah Brunswick, John General, ” Rachael, won’t, they’ve, – Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wall, CNN, Federal, Intercontinental Exchange, ICE, Bloomberg, Getty, Rust Belt, National Association of Realtors, North, NAR, That’s, Baby Boomers, Homeowners, Federal Reserve, Moody’s Analytics, White, National Economic Council, American, Target, Starbucks, Facebook Locations: New York, United States, Atlanta, Peachtree Corners , Georgia, Decatur, Decatur , Georgia, Carolina, Yugoslavia, Italy, Mexico, Oakland , California, Livermore, San Francisco, California, Los Angeles, San Diego, Francisco, Miami, Honolulu, Rust, Des Moines , Iowa, Dayton , Ohio, Cleveland , Ohio, Scranton , Pennsylvania, Los Angeles , California, North America, America, States, Lansdale , Pennsylvania, Philadelphia

☆ Zombie firms are filing for bankruptcy as the Fed commits to higher rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Carlos Waters | In Carloswaters | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"The share of zombie firms has been increasing over time," said Bruno Albuquerque, an economist at the International Monetary Fund. "This has detrimental effects on healthy firms who compete in the same sector." Zombie firms are unprofitable businesses that stay afloat by taking on new debt. Economists say that zombie firms may become more prevalent when banks or governments bail out unviable firms. Watch the video above to learn more about the Fed's battle with unviable zombie firms in the U.S.

Persons: Bruno Albuquerque, Banks, Kathryn Judge, Lotfi Karoui, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Columbia University, Economists, Reserve, Economic, of New Locations: U.S, of New York

☆ Goldman Sachs says home prices are now more unaffordable for the average buyer than they were during the 2008 housing bubble. Here are the 2 things they say would have to happen for home prices to cra
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

It's even tougher to buy a home right now than it was during the peak of the mid-2000s housing bubble. For one, the labor market remains very strong, meaning demand will be supported — if people still have jobs, they still have money coming in to save for a home. Goldman SachsIn the Great Recession, rising unemployment hurt housing demand, bringing down home prices. Another reason Karoui thinks things are different today is what's happened in the adjustable-rate mortgage market. During the Great Recession, for example, unemployment stayed around current levels for several more months following Treasury yield curve inversion before rising meaningfully.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Lotfi Karoui, Karoui, Goldman, Jan Hatzius, Piper, Michael Kantrowitz Organizations: Wall, Conference, Equity

☆ 10 US cities where home-price growth is regressing the most as high mortgage rates worsen affordability, according to Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Goldman Sachs expects price growth to decline for the rest of the year. Since it's based on a three-month moving average, the report includes data from as far back as January when mortgage rates were slightly below today's rates. "With mortgage rates now ~75bp higher, we expect some affordability-related pressures will drive weaker home price growth in coming months," Karoui wrote. Although Goldman expects mortgage rates to slip to 6.4% by year-end, the cost of financing a home will still be relatively high. The higher rates mean prospective homebuyers will face relatively higher monthly payments, putting a damper on demand and price growth in several cities.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Lotfi Karoui, Karoui, Goldman Organizations: Federal Reserve Locations: Seattle, Las Vegas

☆ Investors would be wise to heed these lessons from the 'retail apocalypse' as office values reset
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Christina Cheddar Berk | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Still, it is also true that a lot of disruption occurred in between the events that prompted the "apocalypse" chatter and the firmer ground where retail real estate stands today. Recalling how these events played out is helpful in understanding the situation facing U.S. office properties. For office buildings, the pandemic knocked things out of whack. The same idea is being discussed for office buildings, but one-size will not fit all. There may be no surprise that there has been a huge drop-off in the number of loans with office properties as collateral since March.

☆ The fallout from empty offices is coming. Here's where investors could see the pain
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Christina Cheddar Berk | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +12 min

As concerns about regional banks roiled markets, investors weighed another threat: commercial real estate. Also, layered on top of the property value pressure, are the tightening credit conditions brought on by the recent turmoil in the banking sector. There is no doubt this scenario is a toxic mix for the capital-intensive real estate industry. At the moment, many experts say the real estate market isn't causing trouble for banks, but fears about the financial system are likely worsening conditions in real estate because liquidity is being reduced. The biggest concern is seeing how many other companies join Brookfield , Blackstone and Pimco in handing back the keys on office properties, Clancy said.

☆ Goldman Sachs says home prices are dropping rapidly in some US cities. Here are the top 20 cities ranked, along with median prices and affordability ratings for each.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Below is a list of 20 cities with the slowest home-price growth from the highest to lowest rates. Credit strategists at Goldman Sachs expect a more muted impact on residential lending relative to other types like business and commercial. "In our view, metro-level home prices will be more instructive than national prices when monitoring mortgage credit stress," Karoui said in a recent client note. To be sure, the housing market is more resilient to tighter standards now compared to 2008, when subprime mortgages caused the crisis. That very experience led to stricter scrutiny of lending requirements, causing the housing market to be better prepared to deal with challenging economic environments.

Some $17 billion worth of AT1 Credit Suisse bonds will be written down to zero on the orders of the Swiss regulator as part of a rescue merger with UBS (UBSG.S). Under the deal, holders of Credit Suisse AT1 bonds will get nothing, while shareholders, who usually rank below bondholders in terms of who gets paid when a bank or company collapses, will receive $3.23 billion. AT1 bonds issued by other European banks fell sharply on Monday as the treatment of Credit Suisse AT1 bondholders highlighted the risks of investing in this type of debt. AT1 bonds act as shock absorbers if a bank's capital levels fall below a certain threshold. Meanwhile, law firm Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan said it was talking to a number of Credit Suisse AT1 holders about possible legal action.

☆ UBS could see big gains after forced Credit Suisse merger. Big U.S. banks may also be winners, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

UBS ' acquisition of Credit Suisse could lead to big gains for the Swiss bank. UBS agreed to buy Credit Suisse for 3 billion Swiss francs, or around $3.2 billion, in a forced deal announced Sunday. As part of the deal, Credit Suisse shareholders receive 1 UBS share for every 22.48 Credit Suisse shares they hold. But Barclays analyst Amit Goel wasn't so sure, cutting his view on European banks to neutral from positive on Monday. Wells Fargo's Mike Mayo, meanwhile, sees opportunity for U.S. banks coming out of the UBS takeover of Credit Suisse.

☆ Goldman Sachs cuts outlook for European bank debt over Credit Suisse crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, March 18 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs has cut its recommendation on exposure to European bank debt to neutral from overweight, saying a lack of clarity on Credit Suisse's (CSGN.S) future path would put pressure on the broader sector in the region. Credit Suisse was thrown a $54 billion lifeline by the Swiss central bank on Thursday to shore up liquidity after a slump in its shares and bonds intensified fears about a global banking crisis. "The Swiss National Bank's decision to provide Credit Suisse with significant and inexpensive liquidity fell short of stabilising sentiment in both the equity and credit markets," Goldman Sachs analyst Lotfi Karoui wrote in a note to clients dated March 17. Goldman Sachs initiated its overweight recommendation on European bank debt in mid-January. Credit Suisse Group AG entered a make-or-break weekend after some rivals grew cautious in their dealings with the bank and regulators urged it to pursue a deal with Swiss rival UBS AG (UBSG.S).

☆ Goldman Sachs shares 4 charts that explain the state of the housing market right now — and show why 4 cities could soon see the biggest price declines
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Housing supply on a national basis will remain tight, Goldman Sachs strategists say. Part of that call — which is less bearish than forecasts from firms like KPMG, Interactive Brokers, and Pantheon Macroeconomics — is due to Goldman's outlook for housing supply levels. In certain areas of the country, supply levels are rising faster than in others. In four cities in particular, supply levels are above pre-pandemic levels, the bank said, which will result in greater price declines than the national average. Goldman SachsSupply developments in the multi-family housing market could also signal trouble for prices down the line, the strategists said.

☆ We 'definitely' won't see the Fed cutting interest rates this year but it will pull off a soft landing, Goldman Sachs strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve definitely won't cut interest rates this year, a top Goldman Sachs strategist said. "I would call it a soft landing as opposed to no landing," he added. But it will pull off a "soft landing" and bring inflation down without the US economy slipping into a recession, Lotfi Karoui told CNBC on Thursday. Demand for stocks typically falls as interest rates rise, as higher borrowing costs weigh on corporate finances and tend to have a negative impact on their future valuations. Goldman Sachs said Friday that it anticipates the Fed to hike interest rates three more times this year, after data released last week suggested persistent inflation pressures and continued resilience in the labor market.

☆ U.S. Fed 'definitely' won't cut interest rates this year, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. Fed 'definitely' won't cut interest rates this year, Goldman Sachs saysLotfi Karoui of the investment bank says whether the U.S. Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in the first or second quarter of 2024 is "up for debate."

☆ Goldman Sachs shares 4 cities that will suffer a 2008-size crash in home values — and breaks down why they believe home prices across the US will now fall further than they originally thought
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

In some cities, the damage will be as bad as it was across the US in the mid-2000s, the bank said. Attention homeowners and real-estate investors, Goldman Sachs has bad news: home prices are going to fall further in 2023 than they had previously thought. Goldman SachsWhile Karoui, Viswanathan, and Walker see national home prices falling by 10% peak-to-trough, they see prices in cities where home values have soared above average falling more. What other firms are sayingGoldman Sachs isn't the only Wall Street bank calling for further home price declines in 2023. Morgan Stanley strategist James Egan said in a January note that he sees home prices falling by 4% in 2023 thanks to stagnant demand.

☆ Cost of capital increase will leave low-quality balance sheets vulnerable, says Goldman strategist
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCost of capital increase will leave low-quality balance sheets vulnerable, says Goldman strategistLotfi Karoui, chief credit strategist at Goldman Sachs, says the ability of firms to offset higher interest expenses with stronger earnings growth will be more constrained in this cycle; and shares where he's finding opportunity.

☆ 2-year Treasury reaches a fresh 15-year high
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email2-year Treasury reaches a fresh 15-year highLotfi Karoui, chief credit strategist and head of the credit research group at Goldman Sachs, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what 2-year Treasury reaching a fresh 15-year high means for the market.

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